The Decline and Fall of American Sea Power (ft/American Prestige)

Hard truths about naval sustainment and the Iran War. In podcast form

Edited by Sam Thielman

I KNOW, I KNOW—two newsletters in a day is crazy. But this is going to be short, and no one wants to read a journalism newsletter on a Friday. I definitely don't! 

This edition is devoted to promoting a just-released episode of American Prestige with pals Derek Davison and Danny Bessner about the Iran War. This week I found myself with questions about the sustainability of the massive amount of U.S. naval power devoted to Iran. We're talking about what's soon to be three carrier strike groups—one of which, the U.S.S. Gerald Ford, will soon set a carrier record for 11 months of deployment (versus the Houthis in the Red Sea; uh… against fishermen in the southern Caribbean; and now Iran)—devoted to an active war. That's the most since Desert Storm in 1991. And it's a third of the carrier fleet, which of course carries with it a massive amount of naval aviation assets. 

So I started reaching out to some knowledgeable sea salts. I learned some disturbing things about the realities of naval sustainment. I thought about writing something defense-wonky, but then Danny and Derek invited me on their podcast, and it turned out to work more naturally as a conversation with two smart friends. If you're the kind of person who quotes Master and Commander, this episode is for you. Even if not (and, come on, you should be), this is my best single overall summation of how I view the war.

The episode is here. You'll need to subscribe to American Prestige. It's worth it. Not only do the boys pull off one of the best foreign-affairs podcasts out there, they've been must-listens throughout the Iran War. 

MORE THAN three million people are displaced in Iran because of the U.S. and Israel. But it's not only there. Israel is taking an opportunity to absolutely devastate Lebanon, where 800,000 have been displaced. "In 11 days, Israel killed at least 687 people, including 98 children, and wounded nearly 1,800 others, according to the Lebanese Ministry of Public Health," reports Maria Cosette Molijn for a Zeteo piece headlined "In Beirut, Nowhere Is Safe from Israel's Bombing." It was only last week that Israeli fascist minister Bezalel Smotrich threatened to make Dahiyeh look like Khan Yunis. This is a war on Lebanon, too. 

LAST THING before FOREVER WARS signs off for the week, and it concerns China. Vince Beiser has an excellent overview of the persistent U.S. military reliance on Chinese metals and minerals. But the real story of Chinese materiel in this war might concern Beijing's GPS alternative, BeiDou. As this excellent al-Jazeera piece reports, former French intelligence director Alain Juillet has suggested the accuracy of Iranian ballistic missiles and drones compared to 2025's Twelve Day War indicates that China quietly provided the Iranians with its technically impressive satellite-navigation system. It seems Iran openly began exploring BeiDou last year after the U.S. (and I presume Israel) were able to jam its GPS-reliant missile infrastructure. Seriously, read the al-Jazeera piece—the spec teardown on BeiDou compared to GPS is impressive. And if it's right, it accounts for how the Iranian Shahed-136 drones are hitting crucial American targets, like base radars, compromising interceptor assets that the U.S. can't afford to lose.